Chapter 1. Changes in global economic economy

04/10/2009 1 1 Chapter 1. Changes in global economic economy l In this chapter, we focus on two questions: – What are the key methods for tracking and identifying opportunities in the macro-environment? – What are the key demographic, economic, natural, technological, political, and cultural developments? 2 Analyzing Needs and Trends in the Macroenvironment Fad: hiện tượng, phong trào “Unpredictable, short-lived and without social, economic and political significance”. VD: Harry Potter Trend: khuynh hướng: more predictable and durable VD: thế giới di động cell phone, notebooks Megatrends: xu thế large social, economic, political and technological changes; slow to form but durable about 10 years or longer VD: * from labor intensive to hi-tech industry * from Western to Eastern * from government-driven to market-oriented economies • Urbanization 04/10/2009 2 3 Given the definitions for fads, trends, and megatrends presented in the text, how would you define your online activities? Can you identify an online trend that is likely to grow into a megatrend? 4 l The substantial speedup of international transportation, communication, and financial transactions, leading to the rapid growth of world trade and investment, especially tripolar trade (North America, Western Europe, Far East) l The movement of manufacturing capacity and skills to lower cost countries. l The rising economic power of several Asian countries in world markets. l The rise of trade blocks such as the European Union and NAFTA signatories. Identifying and Responding to the Major Macroenvironment Forces 04/10/2009 3 5 l The severe debt problems of a number of countries, along with the increasing fragility of the international financial system. l The increasing use of barter and countertrade to support international transactions. l The move toward market economies in formerly socialist countries along with rapid privatization of publicly owned companies. l The rapid dissemination of global lifestyles. l The gradual opening of major new markets, namely China, India, eastern Europe, the Arab countries, and Latin America. Identifying and Responding to the Major Macroenvironment Forces 6 l The increasing tendency of multinationals to transcend their locational and national characteristics and become transnational firms. l The increasing number of cross-border corporate strategic alliances–for example, MCI and British Telecom, and Texas Instruments and Hitachi. l The increasing ethnic and religious conflicts in certain countries and regions. l The growth of global brands in autos, food, clothing, electronics. Identifying and Responding to the Major Macroenvironment Forces 04/10/2009 4 7 l Demographic Environment – Worldwide Population Growth – Population Age Mix – Ethnic and Other Markets Identifying and Responding to the Major Macroenvironment Forces 8 Quá trình hội nhập kinh tế thế giới của Việt Nam đã tạo ra những cơ hội và thách thức nào cho các doanh nghiệp sản xuất trong nước? 04/10/2009 5 9 – Educational Groups – Household Patterns – Geographical Shifts in Population – From a Mass Market to Micromarkets Identifying and Responding to the Major Macroenvironment Forces 10 l Economic Environment – Income Distribution – Savings, Debt, and Credit Availability Identifying and Responding to the Major Macroenvironment Forces 04/10/2009 6 11 l Natural Environment – Shortage of Raw Materials – Increased Energy Cost – Anti-Pollution Pressures – Changing Role of Governments Identifying and Responding to the Major Macroenvironment Forces 12 l Technological Environment – Accelerating Pace of Change – Unlimited Opportunities for Innovation – Varying R&D Budgets – Increased Regulation of Technological Change Identifying and Responding to the Major Macroenvironment Forces 04/10/2009 7 13 l Political-Legal Environment – Legislation Regulating Business – Growth of Special-Interest Groups l Consumerist movement Identifying and Responding to the Major Macroenvironment Forces 14 l Social-Cultural Environment l Views of themselves l Views of others l Views of organizations l Views of society l Views of nature l Views of universe Identifying and Responding to the Major Macroenvironment Forces 04/10/2009 8 15 l High Persistence of Core Cultural Values l Existence of subcultures – Subcultures l Shifts of Secondary Cultural Values Through Time Identifying and Responding to the Major Macroenvironment Forces