• How to explain the neutrality of money.
• What the classical theory of inflation is.
• What relationship exists between the quantity theory of money and inflation (and deflation).
• What the role of monetary policy is in creating inflation and deflation, and what their economic consequences are.
• What relationship exists between inflation, the output gap, and monetary policy.
• How the Phillips curve models the relationship between inflation and unemployment.
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11© 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education
Chapter 32
Inflation
2© 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education
• How to explain the neutrality of money.
• What the classical theory of inflation is.
• What relationship exists between the quantity
theory of money and inflation (and deflation).
• What the role of monetary policy is in creating
inflation and deflation, and what their economic
consequences are.
• What relationship exists between inflation, the
output gap, and monetary policy.
• How the Phillips curve models the relationship
between inflation and unemployment.
What will you learn in this chapter?
3© 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education
• The price level, and especially changes in it, is
one of the most important concepts in
macroeconomics.
• Inflation is an overall rise in prices in the
economy.
• Deflation is an overall fall in prices in the
economy.
• Core inflation excludes goods with historically
volatile price changes.
• Headline inflation includes all of the goods that
the average consumer buys.
Changing price levels
24© 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education
To understand the underlying rate of inflation in the economy,
headline inflation and core inflation are often differentiated.
Changing price levels
CPI
Core CPI
Percentage %
6
5
4
3
2
1
0 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12
-1
-2
• Core CPI represents core inflation.
• Core CPI is much more stable than headline inflation.
5© 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education
• A country’s GDP is simply an accounting of all of
the purchases and sales that take place over a
given period.
• Measuring output in terms of money can be
problematic.
• The aggregate price level is a measure of the
average price level for GDP.
– Price indices, such as the CPI or GDP deflator, convert
nominal values into real values.
• The neutrality of money is the idea that real
outcomes in the economy are not affected by
aggregate price levels.
The neutrality of money
6© 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education
LRAS
AD1
P1
Y1,3
SRAS1
E1
• The classical theory of inflation states that in the long run,
increases in the money supply will lead to an increase in prices
only.
• This theory can be illustrated using the aggregate demand and
aggregate supply model.
The classical theory of inflation
AD2
P2
Y2
E2
Price level
Real GDP (trillions of dollars)
• Suppose the economy is in long-
run equilibrium, E1.
• In the short run, increases in
money supply shift AD outward.
– Increases prices and output, E2.
• Eventually, prices will rise in
proportion with the increase in the
money supply, shifting the SR
aggregate supply curve.
• In the long run, only prices
increase, E3.
SRAS2
P3 E3
37© 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education
• The quantity theory of money states that the value
of money is determined by the money supply.
– The aggregate price level is also determined this way,
as it is tied directly to the value of money.
• The quantity theory of money can be seen
mathematically through the quantity equation:
M × V = P × Y
– The velocity of money, V, is the number of times that
the entire money supply turns over in a given period.
– The quantity theory of money depends on V being
relatively constant.
The quantity theory of money
8© 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education
Use the quantity equation to fill in the blanks in
the following table.
Active Learning: Velocity of money
Price level (P) Real output (Y) Money supply (M) Velocity of money (V)
$1 $10,000 $5,000
$1 $15,000 3
$2 $25,000 5
$8,000 $32,000 1
9© 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education
• To establish a relationship between money and prices requires a
stable velocity.
• The data suggests that the U.S. velocity of money has been relatively
stable.
The quantity theory of money
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
M1 velocity
Ratio to nominal GDP
Velocity of M1 in the United States
• The recent crisis has temporarily caused some significant changes.
410© 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education
• The quantity equation implies that increasing the
money supply leads to inflation and decreasing the
money supply leads to deflation.
– The economy adjusts to a different nominal price level
when the money supply changes.
• Leads to the conclusion that the price level is
immaterial.
– Changes in the price level can have a big effect on
economic behavior.
– A modest and predictable level of inflation can be a good
thing.
– High inflation, unpredictable inflation, and deflation are bad
for economies.
Why do we care about changing price levels?
11© 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education
Inflation
Over the last forty years, inflation has generally decreased.
12© 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education
• There are costs of predictable inflation.
– Menu costs are the money, time, and
opportunity costs of changing prices to keep up
with inflation.
– Shoe-leather costs are the time, money, and
effort costs of managing cash in the face of
inflation.
– Tax distortion refers to the fact that tax laws only
take into consideration nominal income, not
what you can buy with it.
Inflation
513© 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education
• There are also problems with unpredictable
inflation.
– Changing prices affects interest rates.
– The nominal interest rate is the reported interest
rate that is not adjusted for the effects of inflation.
– The real interest rate is adjusted for the effects of
inflation.
• Mathematically, this relationship can be
established as:
Real interest rate = Nominal interest rate – Inflation rate
Inflation
14© 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education
Use the equation relating inflation and interest rates to
fill in the blanks in the following table.
Active Learning: Inflation
Real interest rate (%) Nominal interest rate (%) Inflation rate (%)
6 1
2.75 0
2.5 4.5
15© 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education
The effects of inflation rates are easily observed.
Inflation
• Without inflation, the real and nominal interest rates are the same.
• With inflation, the real interest rate is less than the nominal rate.
• If inflation is greater than the nominal rate, investment is worth less in real
value.
Value
in 2010 ($)
Nominal
interest
rate ($)
Inflation
rate (%)
Real interest
rate (%)
Nominal
2015 value
($)
Value in 2015
(2010 dollars)
1,000 4 5 - 1 1,217 951
1,000 4 0 4 1,217 1,217
1,000 4 3 1 1,217 1,051
616© 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education
• The analysis suggests that savers are worse off,
while borrowers are better off, from inflation.
• If inflation is predictable, then this
redistributive effect need not happen.
– Even if inflation is high, savers will not lose out as
long as banks offer nominal interest rates above
inflation.
• Changes in the inflation rate often come as a
surprise, and it can take time for nominal
interest rates to adjust.
Inflation
17© 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education
• You deposit $100 in a savings account with an
annual interest rate of 5%.
• The inflation rate over the next year is 2%.
1. How much more do you have in the bank account
at the end of one year?
2. How much has your purchasing power changed?
Active Learning: Interest rates and inflation
18© 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education
• Deflation is a sustained fall in the aggregate
price level.
• Periods of deflation occur less often than
inflation.
• Deflation causes aggregate demand to
decrease.
– Increases the burden of debt, which leads to a
decrease in consumption.
– Companies are less willing to borrow money,
which leads to a decrease in investment.
Deflation
719© 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education
• Disinflation is a period where inflation rates
are falling, but still positive.
– This usually occurs when the central bank
aggressively tries to contain inflation via
contractionary monetary policy.
• Hyperinflation refers to extremely long-
lasting and painful increases in the price
level.
– This can leave currency completely valueless or
close to it.
Disinflation and hyperinflation:
Controlling inflation, or not
20© 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education
• Preferred monetary policy is to promote
modest positive inflation around 2-3% per
year.
• Inflation reduces the risk of deflation.
• Permits the central bank to implement
expansionary monetary policy.
• Makes it easier for firms to adjust real wages in
response to changes in the labor market.
Inflation as a buffer against deflation
21© 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education
• The Fed’s dual mandate is to maintain price
stability and ensure full employment.
– These goals are often incompatible.
• An economy’s potential output is the total
amount of output a country could produce
if all of its resources were fully engaged.
– This means that only frictional and structural
unemployment occur.
Inflation and monetary policy
822© 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education
The difference between potential and actual output in
an economy is the output gap.
Inflation and monetary policy
2010
2 8
2 6
2 4
2 2
0
2
4
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Percent of total GDP (%)
1980
• For the most part, actual output in the U.S. has
stayed below potential output since 1980.
23© 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education
• There is a strong positive relationship between
the output gap and inflation.
– During recessionary periods, there is typically little to
no threat of a rise in inflation.
– During expansionary periods, there is a higher threat
of rising prices as resources become more scarce.
• A central bank can engage in expansionary
monetary policy to increase employment.
– In the long-run, employment will decrease but prices
will remain higher.
• Central banks can affect prices with no lasting
impact on employment.
Inflation and monetary policy
24© 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education
The Phillips curve models the connection between
inflation and unemployment in the short run.
The Phillips curve
-2
-1
3
2
1
0
4
5
6
7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Inflation rate (%)
Unemployment rate
Phillips curve
0
Hypothetical short-run Phillips curve for an economy • In strong economies,
prices increase at a faster
rate and unemployment is
low.
• When unemployment
increases, prices increase
more slowly.
925© 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education
• An increase in aggregate demand results in an increase
in price and output in the short run.
• The Phillips curve shows that this is associated with
higher inflation and lower unemployment.
The Phillips curve
Unemployment rate
E2
E1
Inflation rate (%)
P
Phillips curve
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
6
5
4
3
2
1
-1
Price level
Real GDP (trillions of dollars)
SRAS
AD1
E1
Y1
Aggregate demand and supply
103
Y2
104 E2
AD2
26© 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education
In the long run, output returns to its earlier
equilibrium, and so do levels of employment.
The Phillips curve
A
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Inflation rate (%)
Unemployment rate P1
C
P2
1. When the central bank increases short-run
aggregate demand, unemployment initially
falls (A→B).
B 2. However, once the economy returns to the long-run
equilibrium, unemployment returns to the same level
while inflation stays the same (B→C).
• Individuals expect higher price levels, causing inflation to be
permanently higher.
• Connecting the two long-run equilibrium points yields the long-run
Phillips curve.
27© 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education
• The long-run Phillips curve is also called the non-
accelerating inflation rate of employment (NAIRU).
• The long-run Phillips curve shows that there is no tradeoff
between inflation and unemployment in the long run.
The Phillips curve
NAIRU
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Inflation rate (%)
Unemployment rate
P1
P2
The long-run Phillips curve • The NAIRU can change over time
due to structural changes in
employment.
• It is difficult to know the exact
location of the NAIRU.
• It is easy to determine if the
economy is above or below it.
– If unemployment is below the NAIRU,
inflation generally accelerates.
– If involuntary unemployment rises,
unemployment is above the NAIRU.
10
28© 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education
• In the 1970s, the Fed attempted to fight high inflation by expanding the
money supply.
– Shifted the Phillips curve upward.
• In the 1980s, the Fed fought inflation by raising interest rate.
– Shifted the Phillips curve downward.
The Phillips curve and NAIRU in practice
P2
1979
1974
1975
1978
1977
1976
1973
1970
1971
1972
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
P3
Inflation rate (%)
Unemployment rate
P1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2 4 6 8 10
The Phillips curve winds upwards
Inflation rate (%)
Unemployment rate
P2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2 4 6 8 10 12
The Phillips curve adjusts downwards
29© 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education
• Inflation is an increase in the price level in an
economy.
– Unstable inflation rates introduce uncertainty into
the market.
• Deflation is a fall in the price level in an
economy.
– Considered more dangerous than inflation because
there is less borrowing and less spending.
Summary
30© 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education
• Disinflation occurs when inflation rates are
positive but falling.
• Hyperinflation is when there are extreme rises
in price levels.
• The central bank can use monetary policy to
control inflation.
– Prefer to keep inflation low, but positive.
• The difference between potential and actual
output is the output gap.
Summary
11
31© 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education
• When the output gap is positive, inflation
increases.
• The Phillips curve models the relationship
between employment and information.
– This relationship does not hold over the long run,
in part because of inflation expectations.
• The level of unemployment where inflation
remains stable is called the non-accelerating
inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU).
Summary