Tài chính doanh nghiệp - Chapter 2: International trade in goods and services

Chapter 2 International trade in goods and services12Lecture planChanges in merchandise trade patternschanges in value, volumereasons for changes in trade compositionprocessing tradeintra-industry tradeprices trendsServices trade patternschanges in product composition leading players22World exports growth, by value (merchandise and services)Value(US$b.)Annual change (% p.a.)2004 1990–2000‘01‘02‘03’04Merchand- ise88806.0–451721Services21006.0071316Source: PRESS/401,14 April 200532Annual real growth rates of world merchandise exports and production, % Source:adapted from WTO International Trade Statistics 200442International merchandise tradevalue vs volume (Table 2.1)Value growth factorsphysical demandvariations in international pricesproduct mix and product qualityexchange rates (‘the valuation effect’) capital flows and trade policyVolume growthe.g. measured at constant prices and exchange ratesmore realistic expression of trade growth 52Product composition of world merchandise exports, (% by product group)Source: adapted from GATT Annual Reports 1987–88, WTO International Trade Statistics 200462World manufactured exports as % of world merchandise exports, 1990, 2003 Source: adapted from WTO International Trade Statistics 2001 and 200472Recent trend: ‘processing trade’Preferential tariff duty-free access to those imports bound for processing and assembling of goods destined for exportsAbout 850 ‘export processing zones’Mixed success in expanding trade and employmentValue varies from US$0.7 billion in Bangladesh to US$104.6 billion in ChinaOn the way down in NAFTA82Recent trend: ‘intra-industry trade”Exchange of the same category of productsT = 1 - I X - M I / (X + M)Reasonstrade takes place in differentiated productseconomies of scale (which require a limited range specialisation)92Leading global exporters of services, 2003 (Fig. 2.4) Source: adapted from WTO International Trade Statistics 2004102Leading services traders  Eight of the top 10 exporters of services are also among the world’s top 10 exporters of goods (only Spain and Hong Kong are not)  EU (15): about 40% of world trade in services US is largest individual exporter(16 %) and importer (12.5%)  Share of developing Asian countries in world’s services exports up from International prices trendsLong-term downward trend in relative prices of most primary products Consecutive declines of international manufactured prices over 1996–2001inflation receded worldwide to 1960s levelsoffice and telecom equipment: strong decline in prices, high exports volumesfirm US dollar over last years, which led to dollar price decline for those goods traded at nearly stable prices in depreciating currencies122 International prices trends contPrices of manufactured goods rose nearly 10% in 2003 (along with prices of farm products), the first annual increase since 1995.Commodity prices and exchange rates changes led to a 10.5 strengthening of all internationally-traded goods in 2003. 132Terms of tradeTerms of trade index = export price index/ import price index x 100 - TTI > 100 favourable - TTI Terms of trade index, 2001(1995 = 100) EconomyTerms of TradeMovement 1995–200119902001USA9899 unfavourableJapan9188 unfavourableAustralia117105 favourableNew Zealand103106 favourableHong Kong101102 favourableThailand10278 unfavourableSingapore11192 unfavourableSource: adapted from World Bank Development Indicators 2004, Table 4.4152Share of world merchandise exports, by region, 1983, 2003Source: adapted from WTO International Trade Statistics 2004162Merchandise trade recovery in Asia (5)*, 1997–2000* Indonesia, Korea Rep., Malaysia, Philippines ThailandYearExports (% p.a.)Imports (% p.a.)19975.1 -3.11998-3.5-30.9199910.2 15.1200018.527.9 Source: adapted from WTO data172% Share of main regions in world merchandise imports, 1983, 2003 Economy % share% share19832003 North America 17.820.5 Latin America 4.5 4.8 Western Europe 40.142.0 Eastern Europe 8.4 5.0 Africa 4.6 2.2 Middle East 6.2 2.5 Asia 4.518.5Source: adapted from WTO International Trade Statistics 2004182Reasons for changes in trade patternsEngel’s lawPrice trendsTechnological developmentsMultinational enterprisesRegional trading blocks192Merchandise and services as a percentage of world exports19701980 20002004Merchandise8183 8181Services1917 1919Source: adapted from WTO data202Exports of commercial services by category, %, 1990, 2003Source: adapted from WTO International Trade Statistics 2004212Services trade in developing countriesServices—a protected sectorbalance of payments considerationssupport for indigenous providers of servicesArguments pro protectionindigenous firms are too weakabrupt liberalisation would eliminate domestic firmsArguments against protectiontransfer of skillsmore competition, better quality of service 222