Tài chính doanh nghiệp - Chapter 16: Doing business in transition economies

Definition of Transition Economies (TEs) Import markets Trade issues in TEs Export marketing issues FDI in TEs, including China Globalisation and China’s economy Benefits and implications

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Chapter 16: Doing Business in Transition Economies FSUFSUC&E EuropeVietnamPRChinaLECTURE PLAN:Definition of Transition Economies (TEs)Import marketsTrade issues in TEsExport marketing issuesFDI in TEs, including ChinaGlobalisation and China’s economyBenefits and implications Transition EconomiesCurrent and former Centrally Planned Economies in transition to a market-based economyFormer Soviet Union countries;Central &Eastern Europe;PR China and Vietnam China-the world's 3-rd largest economy (PPP method)Government sector-still the leading sector in FSU;However, in 1998 it accounted for less than 50% in most C&E European countriesPrivatisation of state enterprisesFormer Soviet Union(FSU)Most developed Commonwealth Independent States(CIS) marketsRussia,Ukraine,Belarus,KazakhstanThe Baltic statesEstonia,Latvia,LithuaniaCIS Islamic RepublicsAzerbaijan,Turkmenistan,Uzbekistan,Tajikistan The Share of China and Eastern Europe* in world merchandise imports, 1948-2000* Eastern Europe= Former Soviet Union and C&E EuropeFig.16.2:China’s share of world merchandise imports, by product, 1990,%%Merchandise import markets in Transition economies, 2000,US$B and %Region/CountryImportsUS$BillionShare ofWorld Imports Major sources of ImportsIn 2000(% of total imports)China2253.5Japan(24%), W.Eur.(15),US(15) C.I.S82.21.3CIS(41%), Japan(1%)Baltic States12.90.2Baltic States(7.4%), all otherSources(92.6%)C&E Europe1462.3European Union(48-62%), C&Europe, Asia, Russian Fed.VietnamImports of selected Transition Economies by Product, 1999, US$ Billion and %ChinaEstoniaCzech RepublicHungaryRomaniaTotal ImportsUS$ Billion165.84.128.828.010.4Total %- Food-Agricultural Raw materials FuelsOres&Metals Manufactures10044558010013373741006273821003162861007110377Trade Issues in Transition EconomiesDecentralisation of foreign trade (China since 1985)From central plan to tariff protectionMembers of WTO:Czech Republic, Hungary,Poland, Slovak Rep., Romania, China(November, 2001)Abolition of import licences /quotasOver 1992-2001, China has undertaken a number of 8 reductions of non-tariff measures.Export Marketing Issues in Transition EconomiesMore marketing efforts requiredLack of information about end-usersLack of hard currencyCounter tradeCommercial bank lending up againAdvertising expenditure up(See next slide)Advertising expenditure, total(US$ Million)and % by medium, 1999 CountryTotalUS$M.TV%Print%Radio%Cinema%OutdoorChina3,40348.447.14.5Czech Republic59849.545.84.6Estonia5025.262.911.9Hungary71367.128.23.80.20.7Lithuania5947.543.21.33.44.2Poland1,43556.027.37.50.29.0Russia397418.31.8Ukraine6780.215.14.7Australia’s position in the import markets of Transition EconomiesBest position in China:A$ 6.5 Billion in 2000/2001; 2% of China’s imports; 8th rankSmall exports to other markets:the share of Australian exports varies between 0.1% and 0.7%(Romania)Exports include primary products, but also some Elaborately Transformed Manufactures( e.g. telecom equipment, measuring and controllingInstruments, medicinal & pharmaceutical goodsFDI in Transition EconomiesEmerging FDI marketsLabour cost advantages (Czech Rep. 1/10 of German costs in car manufacturing)Political stability ? - Finance issues - Hard currency problems Motor car industry, Food processing in ChinaFDI Inflows and FDI Inward Stock in transition economies, 2000, US$B. and % EconomyFDI Inflows US$ Billion% of worldFDI inflowsFDI InwardStockNo. ofaffiliatesChina38.53.0346.7364,345Vietnam2.10.217.91,544C&E Europe-RussiaCzech R.HungaryPoland Romania25.42.74.61.79.31.02.00.20.40.10.70.1124.719.221.119.936.56.4236,8297,79371,38528,77235,84071,318Sectoral Trends in FDI Inward Stock in Transition Economies,1999 Leading Sector: Tertiary (US$ 49.3 Billion, 50.1% of total)Finance; Trade; Transport, storage & communications. Secondary Sector:US$ 43.5 Billion (43.5%)Food, Beverages; Motor Vehicles & Other Transport Equipment; Machinery and Equipment;Primary: US$ 2.4 billion (2.5%) Investment considerationsPolitical stability:High grade:Central Europe; Medium grade (E.Europe); Low grade (CIS)Local content requirements are on the way outSome degree of foreign exchange controls Cost of labour:major consideration for FDI in the area
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