Tài chính doanh nghiệp - Chapter 2: International trade in goods & services

Changes in merchandise trade patterns: Changes in value, volume Reasons for changes in trade composition Processing trade Intra-industry trade Prices trends Services Trade patterns: Changes in product composition Leading players

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USEUAustraliaChinaFarm Products Chapter 2: International Trade in Goods & Services TransportationservicesLECTURE PLANChanges in merchandise trade patterns: Changes in value, volumeReasons for changes in trade compositionProcessing tradeIntra-industry tradePrices trendsServices Trade patterns:Changes in product composition Leading players2 -2World Exports Growth, by value ( Merchandise and Services)2 -3World Trade in 2000Value up by 12.5% to reach nearly US$6.2 trillionpartly because of higher oil pricessemiconductors up by 37% to US$ 204 billionmobile phones up by 46%personal computers up by nearly 15% to 135 million unitsWorld exports dipped 1% in volume in 2001 and contracted 4% in value.For 2002 ,WTO predicts a moderate recovery of around 1%2 -4Annual trend growth rates of world merchandise exports and production 2 –5International merchandise trade Value vs. volume (Table 2.1)Value growth factorsphysical demandvariations in international pricesproduct mix & product qualityexchange rates (“the valuation effect”) capital flows and trade policyVolume growthe.g. measured at constant prices and exchange ratesMore realistic expression of trade growth 2 -6Product composition of world merchandise exports (% by product group)2 -7ChemicalsAutomotiveClothingAverage annual growth rate for the main manufactures, 1990-1999, %p.a% p.aAll manu- factures2 -8Recent trend: ”Processing Trade”Preferential tariff duty-free access to those imports, which are bound for the processing and assembling of goods destined for exportsAbout 850 “Export processing zones”Mixed success in expanding trade and employmentValue varies from US$ 0.7 billion in Bangladesh to US$ 104.6 billion in China.On the way down in NAFTA2-9Recent trend: ”Intra-industry Trade”The exchange of the same category of products.T= 1- I X - M I / (X + M)Reasons:Trade takes place in differentiated productsEconomies of scale(which require a limited range specialisation)2-10Leading services traders Eight of the top ten exporters of services are also among the top ten importers of services.Over 1990-00, several economies increased their export ranking by four places or more.China and Ireland up 14 places to ranking 15India(+11); Hong Kong(+5); Israel(+5),High concentration of international trade2 -11International Prices TrendsLong-term downward trend in the relative prices of most primary products compared to those of manufactures.Average decline of international prices over 1990-2000 of 1%, the net result from: Decrease in prices of manufactures and non-fuel primary productsIncrease in fuel prices2-12Recent downward trend in the prices of manufacturesAfter decades of steady growth,over 1995-2000 the prices for manufactures have steadily declined, reaching in 2000 their lowest level in 10 years. Apparent reasons:Strong technological innovation and competition in the high-tech sectorsLow inflation and the strong US dollar2-13Terms of trade Export price indexTerms of trade index= ------------------------ x 100 Import price index TTI > 100 Favourable TTI < 100 Unfavourable TTI = 100 Unchanged2-14Share of World merchandise exports , by region, 1983, 20002-15Merchandise Trade recovery in Asia(5)*, 1997-2000Source: WTO* Indonesia, Korea Rep., Malaysia, Philippines Thailand;2-16Share of World merchandise imports , by region, 1983, 20002-17Reasons for changes in Trade PatternsEngel’s LawPrice trendsTechnological developmentsMultinational enterprisesRegional trading blocks2-18 Merchandise and Services as a percentage of World Exports 1970 1980 2000Merchandise 81 83 81 Services 19 17 19Source: GATT/WTO2-19Exports of commercial services by category2-20Services trade in developing countriesServices- a protected sectorBalance of payments considerationsSupport for indigenous providers of servicesArguments pro protectionIndigenous firms are too weakAbrupt liberalisation would eliminate domestic firmsArguments against protectionTransfer of skillsMore competition,better quality of service 2-21