Mainstreaming green house gas (GHG) emission reduction assessment into green growth action plan (GGAP) in quang ninh province

1127 MAINSTREAMING GREEN HOUSE GAS (GHG) EMISSION REDUCTION ASSESSMENT INTO GREEN GROWTH ACTION PLAN (GGAP) IN QUANG NINH PROVINCE Assoc. Prof. Dr Le Thu Hoa hoalethu@neu.edu.vn Faculty of Environmental, Climate Change and Urban Studies, National Economics University, Hanoi, Vietnam PhD Student Nguyen Thi Dieu Trinh trinh4mpi@gmail.com Department of Science, Education, Natural Resources & Environment, Ministry of Planning & Investment, Hanoi, Vietnam Abstract This paper combines the methodologies of green-house-gases (GHG) emission inventories, emission factors by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and specific emission factors for Vietnam to assess GHG emission, reduction potentials and costs in Quang Ninh province. GHG emissions from sectors of energy, transportation, agriculture, forest and land use (AFOLU) in Quang Ninh have a tendency to increase fast up to approximately 29.25 – 31.55 million tons of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2020 and around 32.90 – 35.13 million tons of CO2e in 2030. With 16 opportunities in industries and energy, 7 opportunities in AFOLU, the potentials of GHG reduction towards 2020 respectively are 3.03 and 2.22 million tons of CO2e; for 2030 respectively 4.34 and 2.38 million tons of CO2e, with the total costs respectively at 1,671 billion VND and 578 billion VND (exchange rate at VND 23,000 = USD 1). Quang Ninh province needs to complete and announce the provincial green growth action plan (PGGAP) with the list and information of GHG reduction opportunities to create consensus as well as attract investments from private sector and the community; review financial policy framework and other related policies to promote the GGAP implementation. Keywords: Green House Gas (GHG); Emission Reduction; Green Growth Action Plan (GGAP); Quang Ninh province. 1128 1. Introduction Green growth (GG) is increasingly recognized and accepted as a suitably fundamental model for sustainable development (SD) in the context of climate change (CC) by more and more countries worldwide. Vietnam is among some of pioneer developing countries that have issued National GG strategy (Decision No. 1393/QĐ-TTg dated 25/9/2013) and the National GG Action Plan (GGAP for the period 2013-2020 (Decision No. 403/QĐ-TTg dated 20/3/2014), with the objectives: to reduce the greenhouse gases (GHG) emission intensity around 8 - 10% for the period 2011 – 2020 in comparison to that of 2010; the direction towards 2030 - 2050 is to reduce GHG at least 1.5 - 2% annually. The National GGAP requests each province/ city to study and develop the GGAP and suitable GHG reduction plans. Quang Ninh province - one of the economic drivers in the Key Northern Economic Zone and the whole country, has identified its priority in enhancing the capacity to respond to CC, reducing emission while increasing sequestration potentials of GHG. Quang Ninh People’s Committee issued the provincial Action Plan no. 6970/KH-UBND dated on 16 November 2015 to implement the National GG strategy for the period 2016-2020. The province aims to sustainable socio- economic development in line with National GG strategy’s targets, including prioritized ones: Economic structure is gradually shifting from “brown” to “green” activities, prioritizing non-mining industries and services, in parallel with more sustainable and cleaner coal mining; Intensifying investment for socio-economic infrastructure and applying science and technology; Environment protection and active responses to climate change. However, this action plan does not yet introduce the list of GHG reduction projects based on specific calculation on their reduction potentials and costs. Therefore, it is essential to study to assess these potentials and costs for GHG reduction, leading to the contribution for scientific foundation, proposing suitable mechanisms and policies to serve the formulation of Quang Ninh GGAP towards 2020 and 2030, making important part of the national efforts in realizing the National GG Strategy and Action plan for SD in Vietnam. 1129 2. Research Methodology Procedure for assessing GHG reductions The procedure for assessing GHG reduction includes 6 main steps as shown in Figure 1. Figure 1. Procedure for assessing GHG reduction in Quang Ninh province Source: authors’ proposal Methodology for calculating GHG emission Calculation of emission for GHG inventories and projection is conducted under GHG inventory methodology issued by IPCC for the 1st time in 1995, revisions in 1996, complimentaries in 2003 and 2006. According to IPCC’s methodology and related documents, GHG emission/ absorbance volume of an activity is calculated by the following formula: Ei = ADi × EFi x CO2e Where: Ei: GHG emission/ reduction or absorbance volume of activity i (unit in ton of CO2e) ADi:level of activity in sector/ sub-sector i (for example: number of transportation vehicles, rice cultivation areas, the number of husbandries, used fuel volume ) 1 • Identify emission sources, inventory, and forcasting GHG emission at the province 2 • Establish the GHG emission baseline for the province 3 • Identify opportunities for emission reduction in different sectors (energy, industries, agriculture-forestry and land use) toward green growth 4 • Assessing volume and costs of GHG abatement opportunities in each sector 5 • Identify potentials for GHG reduction of all opportunities (in comparision with the baseline scenario) 6 • Conclusion and Recommendations 1130 EFi: GHG emission factor estimated for each unit of activity (for example, kg of carbon emitted on each unit of cultivation area or fuel volume burnt,). CO2e: factor for converting emissions in to CO2 equivalent. Factors of EFi used in this study are specific factors (Tier 2 and 3) for Vietnam. In cases there are no respective data, public announcement or accepted by Vietnam, default factors Tier 1 by IPCC 2006 are used. Three types of GHG that are assessed include CO2, CH4, and N2O; all converted into volume of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) via global warming potential index (GWP) provided in the second report of IPCC in 1996 (SAR) and the fifth report in 2014 (AR5) (See Table 1). Table 1: Weighs for converting GHG into CO2 equivalent according to GWP index Type of gas Symbolic Global Warming Potentials (GWP) SAR AR5 Carbon dioxide CO2 1 1 Methane CH4 21 28 Nitrous oxide N2O 310 265 Sources: IPCC (1996, 2009,2016) Four sectors to be studied include (i) emission from energy in “non-transportation” activities (immobile energy); (ii) emission from transportation; (iii) emission from industrial processes; and (iv) emission from agriculture-forestry-other land uses. Identify opportunities for GHG reduction Two steps were conducted in identifying GHG emission reduction opportunities. Step 1 involved approach of brain storming, discussing with experts from Energy Institute, Ministry of Industry and Trade; Agriculture Environment Institute; Institute of Strategy and Policy for Agriculture and Rural Development; Ministry of Construction A “long list” of 51 emission abatement opportunities were defined, which included: 24 opportunities in energy sector (transportation, tourism, buildings, hotels, restaurant, households, industry, aquaculture,); 16 in agriculture, forestry and land use (infrastructure, environment, high-tech, ); 5 in industry sector (activities in cement sector, construction materials and freezing system); 6 in institutional area. Step 2 is opportunities screening, which employed consultation with provincial departments and agencies in Quang Ninh (Departments of Planning and Investment; Industry and Trade; Agriculture and Rural Development; Natural Resources and Environment; Tourism; Transportation; Construction...), making analysis in all aspects of economic, social and environment, institution; strength, weaknesses, opportunities, 1131 threats (SWOT) for groups of opportunities and each opportunity; using questionnaire for selecting opportunities. After all, a “short list” of 35 opportunities are considered as practical and get more than >50% of votes from local experts. Assessing GHG abatement opportunities and relevant costs Five steps to assess GHG abatement costs are simplified in the expert approach: (1) Consult with experts to identify abatement technologies/ opportunities in areas of energy, transportation, agriculture, forestry and land use; (2) Refer market prices and experts on investment and operation costs, project life cycles of the abatement opportunities; (3) Develop Excel-based calculation sheet for calculation of cost-benefit of those selected opportunities; (4) Import calculated data to MACC Builder Pro – a software that allows to present marginal abatement costs of mitigation opportunities in the ranking order, from the lowest to highest cost; (5) Adjust prioritization of opportunities based on the outputs from MACC Builder Pro. Data sources Sources of data used in calculating GHG emission and mitigation in Quang Ninh include: - Data on economic and emission sectors from Annual statistics, Provincial Statistics Agency; Provincial Department of Industry and Trade, Department of Planning and Investment, Department of Construction; Department of Transportation; Transportation Safety Committee; Department of Agriculture and Rural Development; National Electricity Master Plan; Electricity Corporation; Provincial socio-economic development master plans; Expert consultations. - Data on emission factor and other parameters from Spreading factor of GHG in coal mining in Vietnam; Electricity transmission emission factor in Vietnam; Cement Emission Factor in Vietnam; Ratio of coal pit and open mining; Emission Factors in rice cultivation and husbandry waste management in Vietnam; GHG sequestration factor in forestry; Emission factors by IPCC revised in 1996, 2006; Conversion factors SAR, AR5; Ex-Act Tool (FAO, 2016). Time frame: Time frame for GHG emission inventory (historical data) is 2010 – 2015; GHG emission and reduction projection serves for establishing Quang Ninh’s GGAP towards 2020 and 2030. 3. Results GHG emission sources in Quang Ninh province Quang Ninh has the area of over 12,200 square km. The province holds diversified natural resources with specific species and large storage with high quality, 1132 including: coal, kaolin, clay, glass sand and lime stones,, top tourism potentials with famous beaches and Ha Long Bay and Bai Tu Long Bay Landscape Being the number 1 coal mining and supplying center of Vietnam with annual volumes from 35 to 40 million tons, this is one of the main emission sources of CH4 at present and in the future. In addition, with nearly 2,000 MW thermal capacity, GHG emission from power generation in Quang Ninh is quite high. Road and water transportations play important role in the province’s economic development and as one of the major GHG emission sources. In industry, with nearly 100 high energy consuming enterprises (covering 6% of the country’s in 2015), there are various groups and large companies located in the province, energy consuming activities in industrial production has continued to one of the key GHG emission sources in Quang Ninh. Furthermore, buildings (offices and living quarters) and households are also remarkable emission sources. Thus, main sub-sectors selected to be studied are those having visible impact on the provincial economic restructuring process, with remarkable emission levels, or emission absorbance, including: coal exploitation; power generation; energy for industrial production; energy in buildings and households; energy in transportation; industrial processes – cement production; husbandries; rice cultivation and forestry. GHG emission calculation and projection The results of GHG emission calculation and projection based on 2 conversion factor versions of SAR and AR5 are presented in Table 2. Table 2: GHG emission in year 2015, projection towards 2020 and 2030 Unit: thousand tCO2e Sectors Emission factor in SAR Emission factor in AR5 Year 2015 Year 2020 Year 2030 Year 2015 Year 2020 Year 2030 Energy 20,103.97 28,935.27 29,484.78 21,618.98 30,947.56 31,064.46 Agriculture 1,421.20 1,808.95 2,362.74 1,776.38 2,287.10 3,010.22 Forestry* -3,529.21 -3,731.03 -3,731.03 -3,529.21 -3,731.03 -3,731.03 Industry 2,874.24 4,787.76 4,787.76 2,874.24 4,787.76 4,787.76 Total (master plan) 20,870.19 31,800.95 22,740.39 34,291.40 Total (revised master plan) 20,870.19 26,245.86 32,904.25 22,740.39 28,349.77 35,131.40 * Forestry sector absorbed GHG, then the net emission is less than 0 (<0) Sources: author’s calculation 1133 The GHG projection towards 2020 and 2030 are based on socio-economic development targets set by the province (Quang Ninh’s socio-economic development master plan towards 2020, vision to 2030 – Decision No. 2622/QĐ-TTg, 2013; The revised master plan in 2015), and expert consultations on tendency of households’ consumption as well as technology trend in some sectors. The calculation results show that energy is the largest emission sector in the province, accounting more than 80% of the total emission over years. However, the total emission volume of coal sector holds decreasing trend due to green economic direction, volumes of coal mining and consumption have reduced. Energy production and consumption from other sectors, as well as cement production industry tends to rise in recent years. Emission from agriculture-forestry sector remains negative (sequestration). Using AR5’s emission factors leads to a higher emission from 7 to 10% in comparision with using those of SAR. Identification and assessment of potentials and costs of GHG emission reduction opportunities Based on reference to market prices, in discussion with experts and related departments in Quang Ninh on parameters and essential assumptions during the calculation of investment capital, annual costs/ benefits, project cycle, emission intensity, amount of CO2e emission reduced, for each opportunity in the short list. Costs/ benefits and investment parameters for each opportunity will be imported to Excel calculated sheet established by the author. The calculated results then continues to be imported to MACC Builder Pro software. There are just 23 opportunities with potential to come to final results by meeting the requirements of the Excel sheet and of MACC Builder Pro, include 16 opportunities in industry and energy sector and the other 7 in agriculture and forestry sector. The total potential for emission reduction in industry and energy sectors in Quảng Ninh towards 2020 is 3.03 million tCO2e as shown in Table 3. Table 3. Potential for emission reduction in industry and energy sectors by the year 2020 Opportunity Costs of Implemen tation (mil VNĐ) Amount of emission reduction (tCO2e) Projec t cycle (year) 1 Assist in using biofuel E5, B5 in public transportation replacing 100% of traditional petroleum 50,000 30,480 35 1134 Opportunity Costs of Implemen tation (mil VNĐ) Amount of emission reduction (tCO2e) Projec t cycle (year) 2 Assist in using biofuel E5, B5 in goods transportation, replacing 100% diesel 80,000 48,150 35 3 Assist in solar hot water tank (joining EVN efforts) 1,107,671 366,940 15 4 Develop public transportation system (bus replacing 9% of individual vehicles, electricity vehicles replacing 35% individual vehicles) 1,399,440 308,100 35 5 Assist high energy efficiency air conditioner for households (60% households in urban area, 20% in rural area). 348,153 267,580 7 6 Assist in using high efficient LED in lighting system in 90% of households 19,171 13,440 5 7 Assist in equipping high efficient refrigerators in 100% of households 50,055 24,480 7 8 Support to replace lighting systems with high efficient lights in buildings – hotels – trade and services (100% buildings in the province) 25,515 16,770 15 9 Equip solar heating water in hotels and buildings (65% of hotels/buildings in the province) 22,235 8,930 20 10 Establish energy control system in industrial enterprises (75% of enterprises located in the province) 15,000 15,040 25 11 Tourist Information centers and street lighting system using solar energy (10,000 centers and spots in the province) 42,000 14,700 20 12 Using high efficient amorphous for the electricity transmission network (100% amorphous stations to be newly invested and regularly maintained and upgraded) 700,000 151,250 15 13 Installing small/household scale solar system in remote mountainous areas and islands (15% of households) 4,725,124 1,160,820 20 14 Assist in installing waste heating recovering system for power generation in 4 cement plants in the province (total capacity is 16 MW) 201,600 98,940 30 15 Assist in installing high efficient air conditioner in hotels, high buildings (75% office/commerce buildings and hotels in the province) 255,150 268,330 7 16 Remove and replace 100% handmade brick kilns by advanced technology ones 907.87 238,840 8 Source: Calculation results from Excel sheet and MACC Builder Pro software 1135 The total investment capital need for 16 opportunities (in present value) is around 9 thousand billion VND. In the Agriculture-Forestry-Land use, GHG emission reduction potential for 2020 of 7 opportunities is 2,22 million tCO2e., as shown in Table 4. Table 4. GHG emission reduction potential in Agriculture-Forestry-Land use sector by the year 2020 Opportunity Volume of GHG emission reduced (tCO2e) 1 Optimal use of and replace nitrogen fertilizer in all rice cultivation areas of the province 20,860 2 Using bio char to improve efficiency of rice plantation in all cultivation areas of the province 3,350 3 Water saving and control in rice cultivation using 3D3I (3 decrease and 3 Increase in all rice cultivation areas of the province 23,280 4 Convert unused land into special-used forest land 16.210 5 Convert unused land into protection forest land 529.990 6 Convert unused land into production forest land 690.810 7 Support to install biogas system for household and farm scale husbandry (50% of key cattle heads: pigs, cows) 933.250 Source: Illustration from calculation results by Excel sheet and MACC Builder Pro Continue to project to year 2030 on 16 opportunities in industry and energy sectors, GHG emission reduction potential is of 4.34 million tCO2e, total cost at present value is 1,671 billion VND; 7 opportunities in Agriculture – Forestry and Land use with the GHG emission reduction potential of 2,384 million tCO2e, total cost at present value is 578 billion VND. Analysis on GHG emission reduction’s impacts in different scenarios In comparison to business as usual (BAU) scenario, the total potential of GHG emission reduction for all opportunities in green growth scenario is 5.25 million tons of CO2e in 2020 and 6.72 million tons of CO2e in 2030, achieving 20 - 25 % of the 1136 province’s emission intensity in 2010; 23 – 28% of the province’s emission intensity in 2015. The emission reduction in 2030 also reach approximately 21% of the province’s emission intensity in 2020. Figure 2. Projected emission for baseline and green growth scenarios Source: Calculation and synthesis by authors Additionally, if following the green growth scenario, the province’s emission intensity in GDP will be down from 0.60 – 0.65 tons of CO2e/ 1